Beyond Coronavirus – A Cruise Industry Special Report
After a brief introduction outlining the present circumstances as they apply to the cruise industry, the report first looks at potential precedents for the industry. It concludes that 9/11 was the nearest the industry has ever come to the current situation, albeit that the entire fleet was not mothballed. However, some 19% of capacity was mothballed.
Using detailed in-house historical data of the aftermath of 9/11 as a start point, the consequences for the fleet and the potential speed of recovery of the market are examined in depth and this analysis is employed to develop projections for the market from the time the industry begins to trade again.
The projections take into account the current record order book and the rate of deliveries planned. These projections also examine the potential non-return to service of older tonnage.
In the final section, the recovery value of distressed ship sales is analysed. That is the percentage of book value which ships are likely to achieve if being sold by the receiver.